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Older Adult Fire Death Rates and Relative Risk (2014-2023)

On a per capita basis, fire death rates in the United States have fluctuated over the past 10 years. Although many regional factors, such as demographics and weather, affect fire issues in the U.S., one of the most useful ways to compare fire fatalities across groups of people is to look at their relative risk of dying in a fire. The older adult population faces the greatest relative risk of dying in a fire.

Older adults compared to the general population (2023):

Ages 65-74 had 2.2 times the risk of dying in a fire. The 10-year (2014-2023) fire death rate trend for this age group increased 41%.

Ages 75-84 had 2.9 times the risk of dying in a fire. The 10-year (2014-2023) fire death rate trend for this age group increased 16%.

Ages 85 and over had the highest relative risk among the general population of dying in a fire.

Fire death rates per million population and relative risk for older adults ages 65+ (2014-2023)

Ages 65 and over

Overall, the trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults (ages 65 and over) increased 26% from 2014 to 2023. In 2023, the fire death rate for people in this age group was 33.0 deaths per million population. In 2023, the relative risk of dying in a fire for older adults was 2.5 times higher than that of the general population.

Fire death rates per million population and relative risk for older adults ages 65+ (2014-2023)
YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 65 and OverPopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
20141,30646,161,00528.32.6
20151,33247,655,87028.02.7
20161,31449,208,47926.72.5
20171,44450,757,63928.42.5
20181,59352,354,60530.42.6
20191,47154,036,73527.22.5
20201,58354,452,56129.12.5
20211,90455,884,74634.12.6
20221,99557,470,18434.72.6
20231,95559,248,36133.02.5
10-Year Trend (%)  +25.7% 

Note:

The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported. The counts of fire deaths for the individual age categories (i.e., 65 to 74, 75 to 84, 85+) may not sum to the total per year for the 65+ age category due to rounding.

Sources:

  1. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
  2. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
  3. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.

Ages 65 to 74

The trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults (ages 65 to 74) increased 41% over the 10-year period and resulted in the largest increase in the fire death rate trends for older adults. In 2023, the fire death rate for people in this age group was 28.5 deaths per million population. In addition, in 2023, older adults (ages 65 to 74) had 2.2 times greater risk of dying in a fire than the general population, 10% lower than it was in 2022 but the same as it was from 2018 to 2021 when the relative risk was also 2.2 times greater than the general population.

Fire death rates per million population and relative risk for older adults ages 65 to 74 (2014-2023)
YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 65 to 74PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
201457726,355,43821.92.0
201561027,488,21822.22.1
201662628,593,12721.92.0
201768929,606,23423.32.1
201877430,445,00625.42.2
201974431,471,34423.62.2
202081632,569,28125.12.2
202195433,632,87828.42.2
20221,05033,999,84030.92.3
202398934,685,28428.52.2
10-Year Trend (%)  +40.9% 

Note:

The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.

Sources:

  1. NCHS. 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned ICD codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
  2. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
  3. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.

Ages 75 to 84

From 2014 to 2023, the fire death rate trend for older adults ages 75 to 84 increased 16% over the 10-year period. In 2023, individuals ages 75 to 84 were 2.9 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population.

Fire death rates per million population and relative risk for older adults ages 75 to 84 (2014-2023)
YearNumber of Fire Deaths Age 75-84PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
201445613,672,32133.43.1
201547413,904,55634.13.3
201644914,232,34431.52.9
201747714,682,47932.52.9
201852615,371,57334.22.9
201947515,965,92429.82.8
202049115,822,26431.02.7
202165416,210,65440.33.1
202265017,411,48637.32.8
202368818,368,09737.52.9
10-Year Trend (%)  +16.4% 

Note:

The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.

Sources:

  1. NCHS. 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned ICD codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
  2. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
  3. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.

Ages 85 and over

From 2014 to 2023, the trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults ages 85 and over increased 17% over the 10-year period. Older adults of this age group also had the highest fire death rates among the general population as a whole and, as a result, were at the highest risk of dying in a fire. In 2023, individuals ages 85 and over were 3.4 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population, while those adults ages 65 to 74 were only 2.2 times more likely to suffer fire-related deaths.

Fire death rates per million population and relative risk for older adults ages 85+ (2014-2023)
YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 85 and OlderPopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
20142736,133,24644.54.1
20152486,263,09639.63.8
20162386,383,00837.33.4
20172786,468,92643.03.8
20182936,538,02644.83.8
20192516,599,46738.03.6
20202766,061,01645.54.0
20212966,041,21449.03.8
20222956,058,85848.73.6
20232776,194,98044.73.4
10-Year Trend (%)+17.0% 

Note:

The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.

Sources:

  1. NCHS. 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned ICD codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
  2. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
  3. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.