On a per capita basis, fire death rates in the United States have fluctuated over the past 10 years. In the case of fire deaths, fire death rates measure the number of fire deaths per million population. Trends in fire death rates are computed to show how the rates have changed over time by smoothing fluctuations or variations in the data from year to year.
To account for population differences, per capita rates are used. Per capita rates use a common population size, which then permits comparisons between different groups. Perhaps the most useful way to assess fire casualties across groups is to determine the relative risk of death or injury. Relative risk compares the per capita rate for a particular group (e.g., older adults) to the overall per capita rate (i.e., the general population). The result is a measure of how likely a group is to be affected. For the general population of the U.S., the relative risk is set at 1.
Older adults compared to the general population (2022):
Ages 65-74 had 2.3 times the risk of dying in a fire. The 10-year (2013-2022) fire death rate trend for this age group increased 45.4%.
Ages 75-84 had 2.8 times the risk of dying in a fire. The 10-year (2013-2022) fire death rate trend for this age group increased 6%.
Ages 85 and over had the highest relative risk among the general population of dying in a fire.
Fire death rates per million population and relative risk for older adults (2013-2022)
Ages 65 and over
Overall, the trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults (ages 65 and over) increased 23% from 2013 to 2022. In 2022, the fire death rate for people in this age group was 34.7 deaths per million population — the highest fire death rate for this age group over the 10 years. The older adult population faces the greatest relative risk of dying in a fire. In 2022, the relative risk of dying in a fire for older adults was 2.6 times higher than that of the general population.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 65 and Over | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 1,234 | 44,632,337 | 27.6 | 2.5 |
| 2014 | 1,306 | 46,161,005 | 28.3 | 2.6 |
| 2015 | 1,332 | 47,655,870 | 28.0 | 2.7 |
| 2016 | 1,314 | 49,208,479 | 26.7 | 2.5 |
| 2017 | 1,444 | 50,757,639 | 28.4 | 2.5 |
| 2018 | 1,593 | 52,354,605 | 30.4 | 2.6 |
| 2019 | 1,471 | 54,036,735 | 27.2 | 2.5 |
| 2020 | 1,583 | 54,452,561 | 29.1 | 2.5 |
| 2021 | 1,904 | 55,884,746 | 34.1 | 2.6 |
| 2022 | 1,995 | 57,470,184 | 34.7 | 2.6 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +23.4% |
Ages 65 to 74
The trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults (ages 65 to 74) increased 45% over the 10-year period and resulted in the largest increase in the fire death rate trends for older adults. In 2022, the fire death rate for people in this age group was 30.9 deaths per million population. In addition, in 2022, older adults (ages 65 to 74) had 2.3 times greater risk of dying in a fire than the general population, 10% higher than it was from 2018 to 2021 when the relative risk was 2.2 times greater than the general population.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 65 to 74 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 505 | 25,194,487 | 20.0 | 1.8 |
| 2014 | 577 | 26,355,438 | 21.9 | 2.0 |
| 2015 | 610 | 27,488,218 | 22.2 | 2.1 |
| 2016 | 626 | 28,593,127 | 21.9 | 2.0 |
| 2017 | 689 | 29,606,234 | 23.3 | 2.1 |
| 2018 | 774 | 30,445,006 | 25.4 | 2.2 |
| 2019 | 744 | 31,471,344 | 23.6 | 2.2 |
| 2020 | 816 | 32,569,281 | 25.1 | 2.2 |
| 2021 | 954 | 33,632,878 | 28.4 | 2.2 |
| 2022 | 1,050 | 33,999,840 | 30.9 | 2.3 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +45.4% |
Ages 75 to 84
From 2013 to 2022, the smallest increase in the fire death rate trends for older adults occurred in the group of individuals ages 75 to 84. For this age group, the fire death rate trend increased 6% over the 10-year period. In 2022, individuals ages 75 to 84 were 2.8 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Age 75-84 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 492 | 13,444,136 | 36.6 | 3.3 |
| 2014 | 456 | 13,672,321 | 33.4 | 3.1 |
| 2015 | 474 | 13,904,556 | 34.1 | 3.3 |
| 2016 | 449 | 14,232,344 | 31.5 | 2.9 |
| 2017 | 477 | 14,682,479 | 32.5 | 2.9 |
| 2018 | 526 | 15,371,573 | 34.2 | 2.9 |
| 2019 | 475 | 15,965,924 | 29.8 | 2.8 |
| 2020 | 491 | 15,822,264 | 31.0 | 2.7 |
| 2021 | 654 | 16,210,654 | 40.3 | 3.1 |
| 2022 | 650 | 17,411,486 | 37.3 | 2.8 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +6.0% |
Ages 85 and over
From 2013 to 2022, the trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults ages 85 and over increased 21% over the 10-year period. Older adults of this age group also had the highest fire death rates among the general population as a whole and, as a result, were at the highest risk of dying in a fire. In 2022, individuals ages 85 and over were 3.6 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population, while those adults ages 65 to 74 were only 2.3 times more likely to suffer fire-related deaths.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 85 and Older | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 237 | 5,993,714 | 39.5 | 3.6 |
| 2014 | 273 | 6,133,246 | 44.5 | 4.1 |
| 2015 | 248 | 6,263,096 | 39.6 | 3.8 |
| 2016 | 238 | 6,383,008 | 37.3 | 3.4 |
| 2017 | 278 | 6,468,926 | 43.0 | 3.8 |
| 2018 | 293 | 6,538,026 | 44.8 | 3.8 |
| 2019 | 251 | 6,599,467 | 38.0 | 3.6 |
| 2020 | 276 | 6,061,016 | 45.5 | 4.0 |
| 2021 | 296 | 6,041,214 | 49.0 | 3.8 |
| 2022 | 295 | 6,058,858 | 48.7 | 3.6 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +20.6% |
Notes:
The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported. The counts of fire deaths for the individual age categories (i.e., 65 to 74, 75 to 84, 85 and over) may not sum to the total per year for the ages 65 and over category due to rounding.
Sources:
- NCHS. 2013-2022 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned ICD codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2013-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2022, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.